In the wake of a challenging sales year, realtors at a major brokerage are holding onto hope that Toronto’s housing market will experience a resurgence in 2024, aiming to recapture its former prosperity. Despite ominous predictions from some experts, Royal LePage is optimistic, projecting further price hikes in Toronto and across Canada.
According to the recently released forecast by Royal LePage’s CEO, the anticipated recovery is not solely tied to potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Instead, the firm believes it hinges on consumer confidence that today’s home purchase will retain its value tomorrow. The predicted tipping point is expected in the first quarter, preceding the much-anticipated easing of the key lending rate.
Highlighting a 4.3% increase in Canada’s national aggregate home price in the last quarter of 2023, and a notable 5.1% spike in Toronto—the highest among major cities—the company foresees continued price escalation throughout the year. While acknowledging that home prices remain below the 2022 peak, they emphasize an upward trajectory beyond pre-pandemic levels.
As 2024 unfolds, Royal LePage estimates that the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) will surge to $1,190,698 by year’s end, reflecting a 6% increase from the close of 2023. Calgary is expected to outpace Toronto with an 8% price jump, reaching $716,580, while Vancouver maintains its status as the nation’s priciest housing market at an anticipated $1,256,703—a modest 3% year-over-year increase.
Royal LePage’s experts suggest that Canadians are becoming cautiously optimistic about borrowing costs, and the potential for rate cuts may trigger increased real estate activity. Modest quarterly price gains are forecasted for the first half of 2024, with more substantial increases expected in the latter half due to heightened activity following anticipated rate cuts.